;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; GNU GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSE ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; InCaLead ;; InCaLead (Innovation, Catch-up and Leadership in Science-Based Industries) is ;; an evolutionary model of industrial catch-up ;; which incorporates industrial scientists' training and migration, ;; endogenous R&D decisions and the possibility of funding capital ;; accumulation through debt. ;; Copyright (C) 2010 Isabel Almudi, Francisco Fatas & Luis R. Izquierdo ;; ;; This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or ;; modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License ;; as published by the Free Software Foundation; either version 3 ;; of the License, or (at your option) any later version. ;; ;; This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, ;; but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of ;; MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the ;; GNU General Public License for more details. ;; ;; You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License ;; along with this program; if not, write to the Free Software ;; Foundation, Inc., 51 Franklin Street, Fifth Floor, Boston, MA 02110-1301, USA. ;; ;; Contact information: ;; Luis R. Izquierdo ;; University of Burgos, Spain. ;; e-mail: lrizquierdo@ubu.es breed [firms firm] ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; VARIABLES ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; globals [ num-firms time time-increment time-catch-up emergent-firm time-convergence list-of-firms max-profit-firm avg-competitiveness firms-numbers plotting-ticks ] firms-own [ capital performance r&d-over-profit production cost market-share price profit competitiveness r&d-expenditure r&d-productivity debt financial-needs-indicator init-tech-frontier tech-frontier exp-rate-tech-frontier attractiveness immigration-ratio working-scientists working-scientists-share trained-scientists increase-in-trained-scientists scientists-wages ] ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; SETUP PROCEDURES ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to startup clear-all set num-firms 3 setup-firms setup-variables my-setup-plots reset-ticks end to setup-firms create-ordered-firms num-firms set list-of-firms (sort firms) assign-values-to-firms "capital" read-from-string initial-capital assign-values-to-firms "performance" read-from-string initial-performance assign-values-to-firms "init-tech-frontier" read-from-string initial-tech-frontier assign-values-to-firms "exp-rate-tech-frontier" read-from-string expansion-rate-tech-frontier assign-values-to-firms "immigration-ratio" read-from-string initial-immigration-ratio assign-values-to-firms "trained-scientists" read-from-string initial-budget assign-values-to-firms "increase-in-trained-scientists" read-from-string budget-growth-increase assign-values-to-firms "scientists-wages" read-from-string initial-scientists-wages assign-values-to-firms "r&d-over-profit" read-from-string initial-r&d-over-profit assign-values-to-firms "debt" read-from-string initial-debt do-initial-working-scientists end to do-initial-working-scientists let total-capital (sum [capital] of firms) ask firms [ set working-scientists (r&d-over-profit * (capital ^ 2) * (1 + (interest-rate + debt-amortization-rate) * (debt / capital))) / (total-capital * capital-productivity * scientists-wages) ] end to setup-variables set time-increment 0.0009765625 set time-catch-up "N/A" set emergent-firm min-one-of firms [capital] ;; note that if there is more than one firm with minimum capital, one will be taken at random set time-convergence "N/A" end to my-setup-plots set firms-numbers (n-values (count firms) [?]) setup-plot "Market Share" setup-plot "R&D Expenditure" setup-plot "Scientists wages" setup-plot "Share of total scientists" setup-plot "Debt to Capital Ratio" setup-plot "Immigration share" end to setup-plot [name] let i 0 set-current-plot name set-plot-y-range 0 0.01 foreach firms-numbers [ create-temporary-plot-pen (word ?) set-plot-pen-mode 2 set-plot-pen-color 25 + 40 * i set i (i + 1) ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; RUN-TIME PROCEDURES ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Main procedure ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to go ;; demand-supply subsystem ask firms [update-production] do-market-shares ask firms [update-cost] ask firms [update-price] do-profits ask firms [update-r&d-expenditure] do-competitiveness do-financial-needs-indicators ;; universities subsystem ask firms [update-tech-frontier] ask firms [update-r&d-productivity] ask firms [update-scientists-wages] do-working-scientists-share ;; check times check-times ;; do plots if int time >= plotting-ticks [ set plotting-ticks (plotting-ticks + 1) do-plots display no-display ] ;; advance time tick set time (time-increment * ticks) ;; update state variables ask firms [update-debt] do-capitals do-r&d-over-profits do-performances do-working-scientists ask firms [update-trained-scientists] do-immigration-ratios end ;; DEMAND-SUPPLY SUBSYSTEM to update-production set production (capital-productivity * capital) end to do-market-shares let total-production (sum [production] of firms) ask firms [ set market-share (production / total-production) if (market-share < 0) or (market-share > 1) [ user-message (word "The model has produced a market share outside the interval [0, 1]. Please re-run it with a lower time-increment.") stop ] ] end to update-cost set cost (1 + (interest-rate + debt-amortization-rate) * (debt / capital)) / capital-productivity end to update-price set price (1 + market-share) * cost end to do-profits ask firms [set profit (market-share * cost)] let firms-with-max-profit (firms with-max [profit]) set max-profit-firm one-of firms-with-max-profit ;; note that if there's a tie, one of the firms ;; with the maximum profit will be chosen at random end to update-r&d-expenditure set r&d-expenditure (r&d-over-profit * profit * production) end to do-competitiveness let avg-performance mean ([performance] of firms) let avg-price mean ([price] of firms) ask firms [ set competitiveness ( (1 - price/performance-sensitivity) * ((performance - avg-performance) / avg-performance) - (price/performance-sensitivity * ((price - avg-price) / avg-price)) ) ] set avg-competitiveness sum [market-share * competitiveness] of firms end to do-financial-needs-indicators ask firms [ set financial-needs-indicator (demand-growth-rate + competitiveness - avg-competitiveness) / ((1 - r&d-over-profit) * profit * capital-productivity) ] end ;; UNIVERSITIES SUBSYSTEM to update-tech-frontier set tech-frontier (init-tech-frontier * exp (exp-rate-tech-frontier * time)) end to update-r&d-productivity set r&d-productivity ((tech-frontier - performance) / performance) end to update-scientists-wages set scientists-wages (r&d-expenditure / working-scientists) end to do-working-scientists-share let total-working-scientist (sum [working-scientists] of firms) ask firms [ set working-scientists-share ( working-scientists / total-working-scientist ) ] end ;; CHECK TIMES to check-times if time-catch-up = "N/A" [ if [market-share] of emergent-firm > (1 / (2 * num-firms)) [ set time-catch-up time ] ] if time-convergence = "N/A" [ let market-shares (map [[market-share] of ?] list-of-firms) let not-different-list [not-different-market-share-from-others? market-shares] of firms if (reduce [?1 and ?2] not-different-list) [ set time-convergence time ] ] end to-report not-different-market-share-from-others? [market-shares] let my-market-share market-share report reduce [?1 and ?2] (map [abs (? - my-market-share) < 0.01] market-shares) end ;; UPDATE STATE VARIABLES to update-debt set debt (debt + time-increment * ( (ifelse-value (financial-needs-indicator > 1) [(financial-needs-indicator - 1) * (1 - r&d-over-profit) * profit * production] [0]) - debt-amortization-rate * debt )) end to do-capitals ask firms [ set capital (capital + time-increment * capital * (demand-growth-rate + competitiveness - avg-competitiveness)) ] end to do-r&d-over-profits let max-profit-r&d ([r&d-over-profit] of max-profit-firm) ask firms [ set r&d-over-profit (r&d-over-profit + time-increment * learning-rate * (max-profit-r&d - r&d-over-profit)) ] end to do-performances ask firms [ set performance (performance + time-increment * performance * (r&d-productivity * working-scientists-share)) ] end to do-working-scientists let total-trained-scientists (sum [trained-scientists] of firms) let total-working-scientists (sum [working-scientists] of firms) ask firms [ set working-scientists (working-scientists + time-increment * ( (stay-in-country-ratio * trained-scientists) + (1 - stay-in-country-ratio) * (immigration-ratio * (total-trained-scientists + total-working-scientists) - working-scientists) )) ] end to update-trained-scientists set trained-scientists (trained-scientists + increase-in-trained-scientists * time-increment) end to do-immigration-ratios let avg-wages mean [scientists-wages] of firms let avg-r&d-productivity mean [r&d-productivity] of firms ask firms [ set attractiveness immigration-ratio-sensitivity * ( (1 - r&d-prod/wage-sensitivity) * ((scientists-wages - avg-wages) / avg-wages) + r&d-prod/wage-sensitivity * ((r&d-productivity - avg-r&d-productivity) / avg-r&d-productivity) ) ] let avg-attractiveness sum [immigration-ratio * attractiveness] of firms ask firms [ set immigration-ratio (immigration-ratio + immigration-ratio * time-increment * (attractiveness - avg-attractiveness)) if (immigration-ratio < 0) or (immigration-ratio > 1) [ user-message (word "The model has produced an immigration share outside the interval [0, 1]. Please re-run it with a lower time-increment.") stop ] ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Plots ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to do-plots set-current-plot "Market Share" plot-all (map [[market-share] of ?] list-of-firms) set-current-plot "R&D Expenditure" plot-all (map [[r&d-expenditure] of ?] list-of-firms) set-current-plot "Share of total scientists" plot-all (map [[working-scientists-share] of ?] list-of-firms) set-current-plot "Scientists wages" plot-all (map [[scientists-wages] of ?] list-of-firms) set-current-plot "Debt to Capital Ratio" plot-all (map [([debt] of ?1) / ([capital] of ?1)] list-of-firms) set-current-plot "Immigration share" plot-all (map [[immigration-ratio] of ?] list-of-firms) end to plot-all [l] let i 0 foreach firms-numbers [ set-current-plot-pen (word ?) plotxy time (item i l) set i (i + 1) ] end ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;; Supporting procedures ;;; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; to assign-values-to-firms [var-name values] (foreach list-of-firms values [ ask ?1 [run (word "set " var-name " " ?2)] ]) end to-report round-to-digits [number digits] let epsilon 0.0001 if ((number >= (- epsilon)) and (number <= epsilon)) [report 0.0] let power-of-ten ((ceiling (log (abs number) 10)) - digits) if-else power-of-ten > 0 ;; Be careful with round, as it returns an integer (very short range). [ report (round (number / (10.0 ^ power-of-ten))) * (10.0 ^ power-of-ten) ] [ report (round (number * (10.0 ^ (- power-of-ten)))) / (10.0 ^ (- power-of-ten)) ] end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 680 425 925 536 2 2 16.0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 -2 2 -2 2 1 1 0 ticks 30.0 SLIDER 12 69 285 102 price/performance-sensitivity price/performance-sensitivity 0 1 0.5 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 346 263 591 296 learning-rate learning-rate 0 1 0.05 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 661 36 848 69 stay-in-country-ratio stay-in-country-ratio 0 1 0.9 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL BUTTON 674 231 774 275 setup startup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 674 284 775 332 NIL go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 SLIDER 13 136 287 169 capital-productivity capital-productivity 0.01 10 1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 13 425 333 644 Market share time NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" PLOT 343 650 664 869 R&D Expenditure NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" INPUTBOX 141 172 288 232 initial-performance [0.8 0.75 0.7] 1 0 String INPUTBOX 347 200 591 260 initial-r&d-over-profit [0.1 0.08 0.06] 1 0 String TEXTBOX 13 10 124 28 Demand 13 0.0 1 INPUTBOX 13 172 136 232 initial-capital [130 60 10] 1 0 String SLIDER 12 31 286 64 demand-growth-rate demand-growth-rate 0 1 0.05 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL TEXTBOX 13 115 135 133 Production 13 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 15 249 102 267 Debt 13 0.0 1 SLIDER 13 272 287 305 interest-rate interest-rate 0 1 0.1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 13 310 287 343 debt-amortization-rate debt-amortization-rate 0 1 0.2 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL INPUTBOX 12 349 286 409 initial-debt [100 30 0] 1 0 String TEXTBOX 348 179 474 197 R&D Spending 13 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 353 10 553 30 Innovation 13 0.0 1 INPUTBOX 345 33 589 93 initial-tech-frontier [1 1 1] 1 0 String INPUTBOX 346 97 590 157 expansion-rate-tech-frontier [0.01 0.01 0.01] 1 0 String TEXTBOX 346 326 462 344 University Systems 13 0.0 1 SLIDER 661 129 848 162 r&d-prod/wage-sensitivity r&d-prod/wage-sensitivity 0 1 0.5 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL INPUTBOX 856 37 991 97 initial-immigration-ratio [0.45 0.45 0.1] 1 0 String INPUTBOX 344 349 444 409 initial-budget [0.9 0.9 0.2] 1 0 String INPUTBOX 451 349 589 409 budget-growth-increase [0.2 0.2 0.2] 1 0 String INPUTBOX 856 103 991 163 initial-scientists-wages [0.05 0.05 0.05] 1 0 String PLOT 343 425 664 644 Share of total scientists NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" PLOT 13 649 333 869 Debt to Capital Ratio NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" PLOT 672 425 994 644 Immigration share NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" MONITOR 785 257 872 302 time max (list (time - time-increment) 0) 3 1 11 PLOT 672 650 994 868 Scientists wages NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 false "" "" MONITOR 884 286 990 331 convergence time time-convergence 3 1 11 SLIDER 661 82 848 115 immigration-ratio-sensitivity immigration-ratio-sensitivity 0 1 0.1 0.01 1 NIL HORIZONTAL MONITOR 883 232 990 277 catch-up time time-catch-up 3 1 11 BUTTON 228 672 299 705 rescale set-current-plot \"Debt to Capital Ratio\"\nlet ratios (map [([debt] of ?1) / ([capital] of ?1)] list-of-firms)\nset-plot-y-range (round-to-digits min ratios 6) ((round-to-digits max ratios 6) + 0.0009765625)\nset-plot-x-range ((round-to-digits time 6) - 0.0009765625) (round-to-digits time 6) NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 TEXTBOX 663 10 837 28 Scientists' mobility 13 0.0 1 @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? 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